For whatever reason, have lost interest in making 2023 predictions. It isn’t because of my past poor success rate on these predictions, mostly just not sure what sort of calls I can even make given the uncertainty out there. While we have long suffered in a Calgary infill market with little appreciation, and some stinging negative years, prices and sales were really good over the recent past. A flat year in terms of sales volume and price won’t do us harm. Contrast this with detached homes in the Frazer valley, apparently now down $600k from the March 2022 peak. That is much nastier and likely to cause all sorts of collateral damage compared to a more fundamentally sound Calgary, the likely target for new arrivals (interprovincial migration) which was all time record setting in Q3 2022. Here’s a few predictions for the inner city in 2023;
less volatility - land, labour, interest rates, commodities, bankster rug pulling, in all of this I think we will find less volatility than over the past two years. This doesnt mean low volatility, just lesser craziness than before.
infill home values flat by year end - I am going here with a prediction that prices of Calgary infill housing will go up and down a bit over the year, and end up fairly close to even. Too much rate hike headwind, which hasn't really percolated throughout the economy yet to foresee price gains, yet lots of demand and lower supply than average to set a price floor. plenty of price increases on inputs are pre-destined, unfortunately, making it expensive to build, also an apparent lack of good land listings on the MLS.
a year of finishing - fingers crossed this is correct. I need to finish seven houses, and start two, plus start another large rental project, and
effectiveness of the inner city builders association - many upcoming complex and difficult negotiations need to take place, the association will draw from its strength of membership to tackle these.
