First off, I believe the answer is no. The distinguishing feature between Calgary and the other markets is how much product has been able to be built and how responsive the building industry has been (in the past) to demand. Add in a lesser amount of power and political control via the NIMBY crowd, less natural constraints (like oceans), less foreign money laundering distorting prices, and a municipal government that can actually get projects approved in a reasonable (more or less, some of the time) pace, the Calgary market is just different. Historic wage strength has always been on the side of the buyer, and material cost (in the past), also helped affordability tremendously. The recent trend toward massive construction of permanent rental housing also can act as a pressure relief valve by opening more supply and loosening up vacancy among existing rental stock.
Headwinds to Calgary affordability include the hot 2022 market, rising seller expectations that their home is a gold mine, labour and material shortages, and momentum of being inside a hot market, attracting a lot of out of town investment (Ontario) dollars. This plus rising mortgage rates may temper the amount of building that can be done, but dampen price increases simply because the payment will rise along with bond yields.
All of these factors I believe will nullify ongoing major price gains, particularly rising interest rates. What is a bit of a wildcard is the ambitious asking prices that homes are being listed at. As we are now in the midst of a hot selling season, homes are being listed at very high asking prices, that appear to not reflect fundamental value. Do balanced conditions await the future Calgary market?
Is this a sign of affordability issues to come? Or an outlier?