I used to curate the odd notable sale. Now the notable sales are posted daily, so they aren’t notable anymore. This indicates a market that has moved very quickly, and in the process left me behind. I don’t think I’m the only one that feels this way regarding market risk and overvaluation of land. My builder friends are sending back comments like ‘omg, wtf, crazy’. I have a definite sense of dread and dejavu on the market. Land has reached tops before, but the materials are now obscene with some products being 6x their former price. I don’t see retail buyer willingness to vastly increase their budget, but, it does seem the Ontario and BC FOMO real estate contagion is now impacting the Alberta market. From their perspective, Calgary is a cheap bet. I don’t need to be right but I do need to survive and I’m taking a wait and see approach on these crazy math land deals. If housing prices for finished models goes up 10% in 2022, and stays elevated, then the game really has changed and I will revisit my strategy. My Bridgeland and Inglewood projects literally cannot be touched by todays builder from a cost perspective. A true luxury in this market is the ability to site on the sidelines and focus on execution of the pipeline rather than being desperate and making a huge mistake.
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