Here we are on the cusp of a new decade, the 20’s, and it is time to make some predictions for the year 2020. Given my terrible track record of prediction outcomes, I want to make it really easy on myself for the coming year. It is also easier to make happy predictions than nasty ones, if all the predictions I have for 2020 are negative then I should pack up my truck and move elsewhere and build in some greener pasture. But I don’t see the need to do that and despite how tough the past few years have been I think 2020 is going to be known as a transitional time. So here we go in no particular order;
The all important spring market will be a little better than 2019 and 2018, certainly not the ‘good old days’ but noticeably better than the past two seasons. Or maybe I am just deluding myself again.
My transition into building larger custom detached homes will be a wise move given the situation where the market for semi detached homes has been, and will continue to be, oversupplied and impacted by builders going broke or so desperate to sell they are dumping inventory at impossible prices. I have four planned detached homes to build under my banner in 2020, and expect them to be fabulous (is this a prediction or wishful thinking?)
Inner city land prices and overall values will increase (slightly), I am basing this prediction on how cheap Calgary home prices are compared to other similar cities. A recession year in Calgary is still like an average year in most another economies, so it appears to me that an average year in Calgary will be like a strong year for most other places, excluding the most bubble like metropolises and coastal areas with better weather. This prediction is impacted by interest rate and other government decisions (meddling), and of course, the pipeline constrained economy (could get better). With prices seemingly dropping little by little since (gasp) 2014, that now adds up to a five year cycle. The odds of that kind of down cycle continuing appear (to me) slim for a sixth year.
Here is my favourite prediction - the clueless, inept liberal government will rid themselves of the virtue signaller in chief and his key acolytes when it falls, and someone new and better will be elected!
These predictions, as promised, are fairly tame (except maybe #4) relative to the massive changes and unpredictable events that can and do happen and impact the market in ways that cannot be foreseen. Despite all this I think we can look forward to a favourable year to kickstart the ‘roaring’ 20’s? Certainly hope so, I have spent a longer time working through this recession than I have in good economic times. I’d like to spend the next half decade of my career in an upswing (and then retire and do something else). And because our recession is largely caused by weak and inept governments while other jurisdictions have absolutely thrived, a lot of angst has been bubbling to the surface (wexit, etc). I’d prefer to see a strong Alberta and a vibrant Calgary. This can and should happen. See you in December 2020 when we can review these four predictions!