We’ve seen a rise in anti-development sentiment. This is both blowback from the rcg rezoning (I support and continue to support allowing townhouses in infill areas), and a level of dislike of members of what now appears to be a lame duck council with many declining to run in the fall election. You have to feel some sympathy for the people on the council, regardless of what you think of their policies. The replies on anything they do or say or post on any media is incredibly harsh and nasty. Even the dislike within the council itself continuously printed in the newspaper must be hard to operate in for the individuals.
All this points to changes in the coming year to restrict the most needed types of housing (anything other than single homes and semi detached homes and large condo towers). It is the homes in between semi detached and mid rise apartments (with underground parking and elevators) that I view as most needed and increasingly hardest to permit and pencil. This middle zone gets harder to build and more complex and fee heavy, almost like a compounding red tape to stifle supply. The precarious project really is subject to that saying ‘straw that broke the camels back’ regarding how easy it is to tip a proforma into ‘no go’ territory.
All of this is unfolding as the new, much needed zoning bylaw is being drafted and unveiled. This is a case where politics and department policies may butt heads. You’ve got to assume the technocrats take direction from the politicians, sort of like the recent local area plan update voting debacle. A small shift in council numbers lead directly to that lost vote. The next council will have at least 5 empty seats to fill from resignations, and some incumbents that re-run will lose. You could have 2/3 of the makeup be a shakeup, including the top seat. The next council perspective on townhomes seems primed to shift substantially.
And all of this is happening as larger companies bundle parcels together. These costly assemblies are compliant with land use policy now, but will this change? The homes on these lots are very old and essentially obsolete. They seem to be bought at high prices justified only by adding significant density. This density is most offensive to those living closest and inclined to be active in opposing the projects. What is the end game here? Difficult and risky investment decisions, unpredictable outcomes, lots of winners and losers. Some design companies and builders really pushing the limit of what is permissible doesn’t help either. A wide range of building and architectural quality is observable - not all good. This is ammunition for the anti-development faction to use. Any economic slowdown or trade battle or whatever color of swan appears would mean a lot of broken projects.