Much has changed in the world since I last published an overview type of post in early January. My 2020 prediction success rate are looking ugly right now, at least the more optimistic ones. I am still somewhat optimistic, and that is the second half of the year will be better than the first half. As a city and province, we’ve taken a beating so severe you’d think that some luck is long overdue. And there is sign of our fortunes changing everywhere;

• Trans-mountain pipeline - this really seems to be moving now without possibility for endless legal challenges. Who has money to pay for legal bills in this economy? Political leaders have been posting about the absurdity of tankers using the Panama Canal to ship Canadian product instead of a pipeline.

• Shale oil has been pummelled - the high decline rates in the US shale plays coupled with vastly reduced willingess to finance it has to have an impact on supply over the next six months

• Resilience - Canadians have proven to be much more inclined to act sensibly in terms of managing the risks of the pandemic vs those in the USA. There seems to be evidence the health system can manage more cases, even if there is a second wave during the fall school semester

• Interest rates - if you like money printing and central planning to manipulate the economy, you’d love 2020. I don’t, but without monetary insanity it is likely our economy would have seriously crashed in March. How are we ever to get out of the debt mess I don’t know, but for now we are surviving.

• Trudeau - another scandal, maybe he will have to resign and we can get a better PM, a smarter and more capable cabinet, and better protection of the value of the CDN currency (lol).

On the other hand, this ‘woke-ist’, Orwellian, authoritarian left, cancel culture war we have going on is a really dangerous and destabilizing phenomenon. I’d have never thought some of the more extremest ideas related to intersectionality and critical social justice would go so mainstream. Or perhaps the world isn’t so crazy just twitter is. We spent the Canada day/failed to launch Stampede Friday (can’t believe this actually happened) by doing some hiking and watching the fireworks while getting eaten by ravenous mosquitoes. Are biting bugs not a health risk for viral transmission?