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Calgary: The next Vancouver/Toronto market?

While Calgary will likely never approach the absurdly inflated price tier of the Toronto market (and nor should it given the relative size of the population and economy of Calgary), the nicer inner city areas seem to have no price ceiling.  Despite the continuation of our local recession, land values continue to rise significantly.  There are some credible reports of investors bailing out of the Toronto market and looking for the next place to park their investment.  Calgary is probably the fourth or fifth choice of real estate investors in Canada and they likely see Calgary as cheap compared to their home city.

Given the drastic appreciation we have seen in land value over the past six months, you really have to look at this market cycle as in its infancy, with retail pricing likely to follow land values upward over the next year or two.  Or, builders are crazy, this remains  another distinct  possibility.  

The sale today at $665k is setting the high bar for 2017 thus far.  It makes me feel a little better about the identical quality land we purchased a few weeks ago for $625k (which I felt was too much already). Overpaying for land really undermines the project before you even begin the hard part of building it. There seems to be no caution behind the bids builders are making for land right now.  

Land value is getting too high in the choice Killarney locations.  The land value is getting detached from the economic fundamentals of the Alberta economy.  If we were actually in a good economic cycle with stronger resource revenue and a better government, the value of these lots would jump another $100k overnight.  This would make it impossible to build on this lot unless finished home values went up another 10%, not a likely scenario.